Counterfactuals and Waterloo

If Napoleon had won at Waterloo, Europe would inevitably have changed dramatically.

The reason historians call this counterfactual is simple:

Napoleon did not win.

The claim concerns an alternative historical path. so can we say that only one interpretation is possible.

Historians would disagree.

Possible outcomes include:

stronger French dominance,

another coalition war,

temporary victory followed by later defeat,

different constitutional settlements,

different colonial consequences.

All involve change.

But they are not the same change.

So the issue is not whether change would occur.

The issue is which change.