Do reasonable inferences flow from established facts?

Usually yes.

Facts are the starting point.

Inference is the next step.

Facts do not automatically determine one inference, but they constrain which inferences are plausible.

Do inferences need citations?

Usually yes, but the citation depends on what is being cited.

If the inference is yours, you do not cite another historian for your inference.

Instead you cite the evidence on which your inference rests.