“If the theory doesn't fit historical evidence, the theory is wrong?”

My basic reasoning is correct.

If a theory makes a claim that is contradicted by strong historical evidence, that application of the theory is wrong.

And if the evidence contradicts the theory's general proposition, the theory itself needs revision or rejection.

The qualification is that a theory may have:

a general proposition,

specific conditions,

exceptions,

different applications.

So failure in one historical case does not necessarily destroy the entire theory.