Your independently reached conclusion

Suppose you independently reason something.

If you genuinely arrived at that conclusion yourself, you do not need to find a scholar who happened to say exactly the same obvious thing merely to prove that you are allowed to say it.

You can state it.

The important issue is whether the statement is:

a direct logical consequence,

a reasonable historical inference,

or a controversial historical claim.

The more it moves toward (3), the more evidence becomes necessary.