The rake for dredging up filth is to be perfected By Prof Dr Sohail Ansari

·        It takes a wise man to handle a lie, a fool had better remain honest. ~ Norman Douglas

 Only bad can be unusual

·         The good news is that, according to the organization of news papers, every journalist has honed to perfection its knack for finding something unusual. The bad news is that, according to the organization of news papers, only bad can be unusual.

·         The good news is that, according to the Obama administration, the rich will pay for everything. The bad news is that, according to the Obama administration, you're rich. P. J. O'Rourke

What is Cause and Effect? - The Danger of Alternative Explanations

The other problem with causality is that a researcher cannot always guarantee that their particular manipulation of a variable was the sole reason for the perceived trends and correlation.

In a complex experiment, it is often difficult to isolate and neutralize the influence of confounding variables. This makes it exceptionally difficult for the researcher to state that their treatment is the sole cause, so any research program must contain measures to establish the cause and effect relationship.

Make (something) ineffective by applying an opposite force or effect.

"Impatience at his frailty began to neutralize her fear"

In the physical sciences, such as physics and chemistry, it is fairly easy to establish causality, because a good experimental design can neutralize any potentially confounding variables. Sociology, at the other extreme, is exceptionally prone to causality issues, because individual humans and social groups vary so wildly and are subjected to a wide range of external pressures and influences.

For results to have any meaning, a researcher must make causality the first priority, simply because it can have such a devastating effect upon validity. Most experiments with some validity issues can be salvaged, and produce some usable data. An experiment with no established cause and effect, on the other hand, will be practically useless and a waste of resources.

How to Establish Cause and Effect

The first thing to remember with causality, especially in the non-physical sciences, is that it is impossible to establish complete causality.

However, the magical figure of 100% proof of causality is what every researcher must strive for, to ensure that a group of their peers will accept the results. The only way to do this is through a strong and well-considered experimental design, often containing pilot studies to establish cause and effect before plowing on with a complex and expensive study.

The temporal factor is usually the easiest aspect to neutralize, simply because most experiments involve administering a treatment and then observing the effects, giving a linear temporal relationship. In experiments that use historical data, as with the drinking/depression example, this can be a little more complex. Most researchers performing such a program will supplement it with a series of individual case studies, and interviewing a selection of the participants, in depth, will allow the researchers to find the order of events.

For example, interviewing a sample of the depressed heavy drinkers will establish whether they felt that they were depressed before they started drinking or if the depression came later. The process of establishing cause and effect is a matter of ensuring that the potential influence of 'missing variables' is minimized.

One notable example, by the researchers Balnaves and Caputi, looked at the academic performance of university students and attempted to find a correlation with age. Indeed, they found that older, more mature students performed significantly better. However, as they pointed out, you cannot simply say that age causes the effect of making people into better students. Such a simplistic assumption is called a spurious relationship, the process of 'leaping to conclusions.'

In fact, there is a whole host of reasons why a mature student performs better: they have more life experience and confidence, and many feel that it is their last chance to succeed; my graduation year included a 75-year-old man, and nobody studied harder! Mature students may well have made a great financial sacrifice, so they are a little more determined to succeed. Establishing cause and effect is extremely difficult in this case, so the researchers interpreted the results very carefully.

Another example is the idea that because people who eat a lot of extra virgin olive oil live for longer, olive oil makes people live longer. While there is some truth behind this, you have to remember that most regular olive oil eaters also eat a Mediterranean diet, have active lifestyles, and generally less stress. These also have a strong influence, so any such research program should include studies into the effect of these - this is why a research program is not always a single experiment but often a series of experiments.