If a statement is not merely a logical deduction from a few historical facts and it is a major interpretive thesis about historical causation and political motivation.

Can you publish it?

Yes, in principle. Many influential historical works advance original interpretations.

But there is an important condition:

You must build the inference from evidence and argument.

Think of it like a mathematical proof. Only then does the inference become publishable.

A major original inference cannot simply stand by itself.